Survation
Survation | 2024 in Review: Labourâs Landslide, Rising Discontent, and the Challenge Ahead
Blog The election was a huge success for Labour, as the party returned to Government with a Commons majority of 174. Meanwhile the Conservatives faced a wholesale rejection, being reduced to just 121 MPs. The Conservativesâ 2019 coalition fell apart as the partyâs vote share fell by 20% nationally, 29% in seats where the party […]
Survation | Do the public support limiting Elon Musk’s influence?
Blog Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and his party treasurer recently took a meeting with Elon Musk in Mar-a-Lago. This meeting came off the back of speculation Mr Musk could donate the party as much as $100 Million (£80 Million), a new record for a single donation to a British political party. It has […]
Survation | Conservatives Sink to 18%
Blog With just eight days until the election, the Conservatives have recorded their lowest ever share of the vote in Survation’s headline voting intention. Both main parties have seen their share of voting intentions decline by similar amounts since the election was called. In the first week of the campaign, the Conservatives […]
Survation | Conservatives Set for Wipe Out in the North West
Blog The North West contains 73 constituencies. On 2019 notional results, the Conservatives hold 31 seats and Labour 41, with the one additional seat belonging to the Speaker. Westmorland and Londsdale, which the Liberal Democrats currently hold, would have been won by the Conservatives had the previous election been fought on new boundaries. […]
Survation | Survation MRP Update: Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland
Blog Survation’s latest MRP shows Labour are on course for a 290 seat majority. Our probabilistic approach estimates Labour will win 470 seats – far surpassing its performance in 1997. The Conservatives are projected to win just 85 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would become the third largest party with 56 seats, overtaking […]
Survation | Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Blog With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. We have since updated our MRP prediction using our latest data from telephone polling […]
Survation | Harris Narrowly Ahead in Pennsylvania. Early Vote Dynamics Help At the Margin:
Blog As Pennsylvania’s voters head to the polls in the final hours of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, a new Survation poll suggests a narrow lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Conducted between November 1st and 4th, the poll reveals that Harris currently holds a slight edge with 51% of […]
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election
We have since updated our MRP prediction using our latest data from telephone polling – you can find our final estimates (including an updated dashboard)… The post Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election appeared first on Survation. Survey Polling
Survation | Labourâs First 100 Days: Our Qualitative Panel Has Their Say
Blog Despite the ongoing backlash against policies such as means-testing the winter fuel payment and negative press around the Prime Minister’s handling of gifts, recent Survation polling has shown that current voting intention has not dramatically changed from the General Election in July. To understand the polling and to get under the skin of […]
Survation | Final Survation MRP Projection of the 2024 General Election
Blog Yesterday, we published our final polling call based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) estimates to provide an estimate of seat distribution between the parties. These estimates were derived from a posterior distribution based on […]