Blog With just eight days until the election, the Conservatives have recorded their lowest ever share of the vote in Survation’s headline voting intention. Both main parties have seen their share of voting intentions decline by similar amounts since the election was called. In the first week of the campaign, the Conservatives…
Blog The North West contains 73 constituencies. On 2019 notional results, the Conservatives hold 31 seats and Labour 41, with the one additional seat belonging to the Speaker. Westmorland and Londsdale, which the Liberal Democrats currently hold, would have been won by the Conservatives had the previous election been fought on new boundaries. …
Blog Survation’s latest MRP shows Labour are on course for a 290 seat majority. Our probabilistic approach estimates Labour will win 470 seats – far surpassing its performance in 1997. The Conservatives are projected to win just 85 seats, while the Liberal Democrats would become the third largest party with 56 seats, overtaking…
Blog With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition. We have since updated our MRP prediction using our latest data from telephone polling…
Blog As Pennsylvania’s voters head to the polls in the final hours of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, a new Survation poll suggests a narrow lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump. Conducted between November 1st and 4th, the poll reveals that Harris currently holds a slight edge with 51% of…
We have since updated our MRP prediction using our latest data from telephone polling – you can find our final estimates (including an updated dashboard)… The post Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election appeared first on Survation. Survey Polling
Blog Despite the ongoing backlash against policies such as means-testing the winter fuel payment and negative press around the Prime Minister’s handling of gifts, recent Survation polling has shown that current voting intention has not dramatically changed from the General Election in July. To understand the polling and to get under the skin of…
Blog Yesterday, we published our final polling call based on our telephone poll conducted between the 1st and the 3rd of July, alongside an updated set of MRP (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification) estimates to provide an estimate of seat distribution between the parties. These estimates were derived from a posterior distribution based on…
Blog The scale of the Conservatives’ collapse in the 2024 general election was unprecedented. The party’s share of the vote fell to its lowest ever level and its net seat losses totalled 252, 74 more than in 1997. Almost anywhere that voters had the opportunity to get rid of a sitting Conservative, they elected to…
Blog The struggling independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr is expected to drop out of the US presidential race, and while some have speculated that this may be a boost to Trump’s chances in November, our polling suggests that it is unlikely to have any major impact on the Republican or Democratic hopefuls. …
